Possible Knock outs of Cricket World Cup 2015

 As we came into final week of the group stage matches, all are speculating about the possible quarter final games. Pool A is sorted as far as team’s participation in quarters are concerned. Bangladesh`s victory over England gave them their first quarter final; along with New Zealand, Australia and Sri Lanka. There is still a concern in pool B where 3 teams are fighting for last 2 places in quarters. India and South Africa proceed towards Quarters and Ireland, Pakistan and West Indies are still in race depending on various group match results. Following are the calculations and assumption of Knock Outs (According to their past records and present form).

Let’s consider all group matches:

New Zealand will beat Bangladesh and Australia will beat Scotland; that means Bangladesh will finish at 4^th position and they will face mighty Indians in Quarters. If by any chance, Bangladesh beat New Zealand then Bangladesh will finish at 3^rd position and hence India will face Sri Lanka in Quarters (Chance of revenge of WC2011 final)

1st quarter final: India vs Bangladesh (Winner: India)

Or 1st quarter final: India vs Sri Lanka (Winner: India)

2nd Quarter final: South Africa vs Sri Lanka (Winner: Sri Lanka)

Or 2nd Quarter final: South Africa vs Bangladesh (Winner: South Africa)

Now, if Ireland beat Pakistan and West Indies will obviously beat UAE by big margin then there is a possibility of Pakistan exit or if Pakistan beat Ireland then following quarter final take place.

3rd Quarter final: New Zealand vs West Indies or Pakistan (Winner: New Zealand)

4th Quarter final: Australia vs Pakistan or Ireland (Winner: Australia)

Teams will qualify for Semi Finals are India, Sri Lanka (or South Africa), New Zealand and Australia

1st Semi Final: India vs Australia

2nd Semi Final: Sri Lanka (Or South Africa) vs New Zealand

Afterwards, time will tell who will play the grand final on 29^th March 2015.

Bold – High Possibility

The changing dimensions in One Day Cricket

            The game of cricket was so exciting and thrilling in olden days; it was testing for batsmen to be on the crease and to score runs as well. It was more or less 50% favoring batsmen and 50% favoring bowlers. It was an equal affair in the gentlemen`s game; match winning batsmen were tested uniformly by match winning bowlers. But as the time elapsed, there is a certain evolution happened in this game of Cricket.

            Let’s take an ODI which played in 1996; where one particular team touched 300 run mark and felt relaxed as if they have won the 75% of the match. And indeed, it was a match winning total for many a years. But this is no longer existent. Following stats give you the perfect justification of what I am saying. We will analyze World Cups;

World Cup	Country Hosted	No of matches played	No of times 300 have scored
1992 World Cup:	Aus, NZL	39	2
1996 World Cup:	India, Pak, SL	38	4
1999 World Cup:	England, Wales, Scotland	42	3
2003 World Cup:	RSA, Kenya, Namibia	54	8
2007 World Cup:	West Indies	51	16
2011 World Cup:	India, SL, Ban	49	17
2015 World Cup:	Aus, NZL	26*	17*

      * Represents World Cup is in process.

After looking into the stats, in 2015 World Cup seventeen 300+ runs scored already and only half of the tournament is done, out of which three 400+ team runs scored as well. If the run making goes with the same pace, then tally will rise to whooping 32-34 300+ scores.

Why there is gradual increase in number of 300+ scores?

   1.   Powerplay: After the inclusion of Powerplay in 2007 World cup there is a tremendous increase in run scoring.

  2.    Batting friendly conditions: Australia is not the batting country, but still so many 300+ scores (3 400+), because of the flat wickets offered almost on all the grounds (also in New Zealand)

  3.   Little margin for error in Head height wide balls: Umpire is very strict about head height wide balls, which don’t allow the bowlers to ball bouncers too often

              4.     Fielding Restrictions: Before a year or so, there were 5 fielders protecting boundaries, this is also changed now. Now only 4 fielders are allowed to protect the boundary. And Australian grounds are so huge; running between the wickets are also increased.

Hence, if we compare the 2011 world up and ongoing 2015 world cup, there is a massive difference in run scoring; almost every match, a record is breaking, if not more. People obviously like this clobbering by bat as most of the public watches it for seeing batting. Great cricket pundits are reckoning some batsmen like Gayle, De Villers etc will score 300 alone in an ODI game in future.

I am afraid to say, these are not the good tactics for this game which should have equal rules favoring both Bowlers and Batsmen. Or else time will come when; all eleven members in the team will be batsmen and will not care about bowling.

10 Gaurav Purohit Quotes on Life

1. "Judgment and Betting are one and same thing.....Playing with both, you will lose the plot of life"


2. "Knowledge is a good thing to carry....But experience matters everywhere"


3. "Best love you can get is from....The Pets"


4. "Good Friends and Good Books...takes time to understand"


5. "Truth hurts....But Falsity betrays"


6. "If world thinks that you are not good looking....Just take a selfie and admire yourself..Don't bother about the world"


7. "Don`t find richness in money....find it in honesty"


8. "Be sharp and humble in life...and taste success every time"


9. "Nobody should be sad in facing bad luck...Its part and parcel of life"


10. "Live bravely.....Die bravely.....U will be recognize as immortal"


-- Gaurav Purohit

A Costly Mistake

  According to my collection of statistics, Indian selectors have made a costly mistake of leaving out Virender Sehwag and Yuvraj Singh from the world cup 2015 squad. These two players have a great world cup record in past, both of these players played 3 editions each and excelled in all three. Virender Sehwag had a reasonable 2003 World cup with a scintillating innings of 80 odd runs in losing cause final, a short stint of 2007 World cup was very good for Viru, as he made a smashing century and 2011 was the best world cup, as he scored more than 450 runs. Similarly, Yuvi had the same world cup history having a satisfied performance in 2003 World cup, a swashbuckling innings in 2007 world cup and who can forget his all round performance in 2011 world cup (He was man of the series).

 But, they had very ordinary form off late since 2013 start till date, both struggled to get runs on international circuit. But India is suffering a miserable time down under, many injuries, and many players are out of their regular touch. Likes of Shikhar Dhawan who is in poor form, also Raina, Dhoni is not in their great touch. I think Viru and Yuvi could have been included into the squad just to increase the level of experience. Also the inclusion of these two heavyweights would have pressurized the opposing team. They have the ability to reduce the moral of the opposition single handedly. This is my personal stance.

          But the numbers are matching my view point. Statistically speaking, both of these seniors are in substantial form in ongoing Ranji Trophy. Talking of Viru, he played 9 innings and at an average of 55.56 scored 500 runs with 2 centuries and 2 half centuries whereas Yuvi is in marvellous form played 10 innings and at an average of 62 scored 620 odd runs with 3 centuries and 2 half centuries.  These are current statistics (numbers) and now look onto the current Indian world cup team, Shikhar Dhawan is in awful touch, Rohit Sharma is injured, Rahane is more or less inconsistent, Raina is in bad touch, Dhoni is not in best of his forms. Bowling is also an issue but it was there from past (B.Kumar, Jadeja and Ishant are injured); but batting wasn`t an issue anytime, it is now.  Now, tournament is in Australia and New Zealand, they need a little amount of experience and Viru and Yuvi are acquaintance with it. But it cannot be helped now, I will hope India will do well and will retain the world cup 2015, best of luck Team India.

A misfortune of World Cup: Team South Africa

 Cricket World cup is the most coveted event and its 11^th edition is about to start on 14^th Feb`15 where host New Zealand will face one of the Asian giants Sri Lanka. If we look on to the history book of  this mega event, Australia is the best performing team and has as many as 4 title wins in 10 world cups ever played. India and West Indies won twice and two Asian countries i.e. Pakistan and Sri Lanka won once. England (country where Cricket was born) never won a single title; they were runner ups in 3 tournaments. New Zealand also never won the title; still they appeared in 6 semi finals (that is a good number). But this tournament haunted one of the best teams ever played this game, team is South Africa. Proteas are considered as chokers (always find themselves on losing side while playing a knock out game). What is the story of South Africans in the World Cup let’s find out.

World Cup 1992: That is when South Africans came back into Cricket after their issues resolved within the country about freedom. Tournament played in Australia and New Zealand; it was Semi Final (England vs. South Africa). Throughout the tournament South Africa played really well to reach into knock out stage. They were into deep trouble as they lost 6 wickets and still 50 odd runs to chase; but they thrived and reduced the target to 22 required of 13 balls. Now this target was looking gettable for the Proteas but Rain god entered into the frame and outmaneuvers the scenario for South Africa and wrote the most unfortunate collocations: By law of two brothers called Duckworth and Lewis, revised target became 22 required of 1 ball. South Africans couldn`t believe that moment and they certainly wanted to obliterate that memory from their history book. That was the first instance of how unlucky this team can be. And later it became an almanac.

World Cup 1996: 11^th March 1996, 3^rd quarter final between South Africa and West Indies. South Africa was the favorites to win the world cup; they won 10 of their last ODI matches on the trot to come into this knock out match. Proteas were looking absolutely definite to go into final but Brian Charles Lara played the knock of the world cup, made 111 and South Africans got a superlative target to chase on (Target was 265)..As they were in good form off late they started well and were comfortable on 186/3; when a big batting subsided and they fell short of the target (lost by 19 runs). Also their ODI winning record came to stand still. Again in a knock out, again a shame. They must have recollected their memories of 1992 world cup.

World Cup 1999: 17^th June, 2^nd Semi final Australia vs. South Africa. Both teams were top contenders of that competition but just 4 days ago Australia beat South Africa in a group game (Gibbs dropped chance was the major outcome of Proteas loss). Now Australia at least had to tie with South Africans to proceed towards Lord`s for the grand finale. And guess what it really happened (Can you believe it). Just like 1992 and 1996 World Cup, Luck showed the African country a black exit from the tournament. Australia batted first and made a modest total of 213, that was not a challenging total, but again it was semi finals hence there were goose bumps onto the proteas skins. Lance Klusner (ultimately became Man of the series) was in form of his life. It was last over when Klusner was on strike and 9 required; when he played two outstanding shots towards the cover boundary and reduced the target to 1 run needing of 4 balls. It became palpable that Proteas would win but then there was a run out chance missed on the next delivery (Australians knew, if they were able to tie this, they would get through). 1 run of 3 balls and then God`s decided the destiny which was same in the earlier two world cups and Allan Donald got run out coming into pressure. And a chokers tag glued with the South African team.

World Cup 2003: South Africa was hosting the tournament for the first time. But that time they weren`t the favorites as they were in last three world cups. Still an unfortunate event stopped Proteas even getting into Super 6 stages. It was not a knock out match as per definition as Sri Lanka took on South Africa is their last group stage match. But it was virtually a knock out game for both the teams because of the points table. South Africa needed the victory to go past Super 6 while Sri Lanka needed at least a tie to go through. Sri Lanka batted first and Marvan Attapattu batted like champion and with the help of his 120 odd runs, Sri Lanka manage a healthy score of 268. Rain halted the run chase. Everyone recollected the rough memories of World Cup 1992 and Duckworth Lewis brothers. It was raining and Mark Boucher hit a stunning six over long on and next delivery he just tapped ball towards short mid wicket region for no run, he introspected that  he was above par of asking target from those brother`s law (rule). And match stopped afterwards because of heavy rain. And later what happened was just a tragedy. According to Duckworth Lewis method match got tied and Sri Lanka went through and poor South Africans knocked out from the competition. Fans couldn`t believe what happened. But it was just an affair with the luck factor which was never on South African side.

World Cup 2007: West Indies hosted the world cup for the first time; big nations like India and Pakistan knocked out of group stages. That time again South Africans were prime favorites; Semi final 2: Australia vs. South Africa (re-match of 1999 World Cup). Throughout the tournament South Africa played well and was defeating odds of being chokers in world cup. But 149 all out against Australia in must win match proved everybody that, even if South Africa worked hard to win in the knock outs, they won’t be able to get through because of the luck factor. Australia easily defeated sorry Africans and went onto win world cup three times in a row.

World Cup 2011: India-Sri Lanka-Bangladesh hosted that year`s competition. That year, South Africa was the best team compared to their previous world cups with the likes of Steyn,Morkel,Kallis,AB etc; they were looking absolute merciless. Literally, because of their team`s composition everyone forgot their tag of being chokers. In one of the group stage matches, South Africa beat India in tensed competition and proved that they were no longer the chokers. But it was not a knock out game; Quarter final: New Zealand vs. South Africa (with no doubt Proteas were firm favorites) and with bowling first South Africans managed to restrict Kiwis to passable total of 221. South Africa look favorites till 108/2 when Jacob Oram held Kallis on boundary line and then it was inevitable, a big collapse happened and they fell short by a considerably good margin. South Africa knocked out yet again.

World Cup 2015: Now great pundits of Cricket reckoned Australia,Kiwis,Inida and The Proteas as the World Cup favorites, but how South Africans deal with the pressure of being a chokers is very interesting to see. Only time will tell and also it will be very fascinating to see what Luck has in store in South Africa`s nemesis. 

2015 Cricket World Cup Heading Towards which Country (My analysis about the teams taking part in WC 2015)

The Biggest event of Cricket i.e. World Cup is not too far away now (starting on 14^th Feb`15). Cricket World Cup 2015 is 11^th Edition and this time it is jointly hosted by Australia and New Zealand. India is ready to defend most prestigious prize in the world of Cricket, and they are to be challenged by distinguished teams worldwide. Event will kick start with New Zealand facing Sri Lanka on 13^th Feb. Hence, I am analyzing who has a superior chance of winning it (by their recent form, statistics etc).

As India is the defending Champion, let us contemplate about their chance of lifting the cup yet again. They had a poor run in Test Cricket in past (Lost all test series overseas). If we think of very recent statistics, India lost 3-1 against England and 2-0 against Australia. But as Indian team changes their wardrobe to colorful clothes they seems altogether a different unit (recent record shows, they dominantly beat England, West Indies and Sri Lanka in ODI series). Hence what I feel India has a good Chance of retaining the title because of the likes of inform Batsmen Virat Kohli, Ajinkya Rahane, Suresh Raina, Rohit Sharma etc and ODI specialist and Indian Skipper MS Dhoni (considered as best finisher in ODI cricket). Hence, batting unit is sorted; only concern is bowling which has been second-rated every time (especially in test Cricket). But when it comes to shorter format of the Game, India has a pretty decent record (spin department with the likes of Ashwin, Jadeja and Axar and pacers like Bhuvi and Ishant) and since ODI format is slightly easier as compared to Test Cricket, we can hope that bowlers will do well. Hence out of 100 India will get an 18 (the most rating) for retaining the World Cup because of their recent record since 2011 in ODI cricket.

Next up in Line are Australia and New Zealand. Australians are exquisite on their home grounds; they want to desperately win this tournament to give a special tribute to Late Phillip Hughes. Hence, they have an emotional factor which will be a huge boost for their team. There form is also considerably good (recently defeated India in tests but also were dominantly beaten by Pakistan) and likes of David Warner and SPD Smith are in dazzling touch. And with the addition of George Bailey and Glenn Maxwell; batting unit looks strongest on paper. And their bowling equally matches their batting with the like of Mitchell Johnson, Starc, and Cummins etc. Will Michael Clarke and Company rewrites Australian name in the history of World Cup yet again (after victory in 1987, 1999, 2003 and 2007). Another host nation i.e. New Zealand is in sensational form with the likes of Brendon Mccullum who is scoring runs on will (3 centuries recently in Tests and ODIs) and with the likes of Williamson (who is Player of the year), Guptill, Ross Taylor and Cory Anderson seems batting unit  sublime touch. And Bowling also is pretty decent with likes of Trent Boult who is among the leading wicket takers in tests in 2014 and Tim Southee in company and last but not the least Daniel Vettori (playing his last World Cup). Will New Zealanders bids adieu to Vettori with a World Cup. Definitely they have an ample of Chance. Hence Australia gets a 15 and New Zealand get a 14.

Next up is South Africa; I considered Proteas the favorite every time going into any world cup. This time also they have a formidable team with the likes of Amla (ODI Genius), De Villiers (Best Finisher), Du Plessis and Duminy etc. in batting and Morkel, Philander and Dale Steyn (best bowler in the world) in bowling. They have a great recent record as well going into the competition (they defeated Sri Lanka, Australia and Zimbabwe in a tri series, New Zealand). But what comes between South Africa and the World cup is the Luck. They are famous by their nickname Chokers in the World Cup. Since their entry in this tournament they are facing terrible consquences like a D/L method in 1992 and 2003, Famous run out in 1999 WC or 2011 batting collapse in quarters. Even if they had a great bunch of players, they were unable to make it into a single final of this league. But it’s a new start, fresh start; certainly team will look beyond their performances from past world cups and will go into the competition with a positive mindset. I hope to see this team into the finals of this edition of World Cup (because they deserve it). Hence Proteas will get a 15.

Next up is two Asian giants and previous world cup winners Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Both have equal chance yet not firm because of their inconsistency in recent past. There is no doubt about the capability of teams; both teams are good enough to go for the League. Consider Sri Lanka (Asian Champion 2014) who has heavy weights like Kumar Sangakkara, Mahela Jayawardene, T.Dilshan (All 3 are going to retire after world cup) but they have highly inconsistent form in past. Sometimes they play well; sometimes there will be a batting collapse. In addition to the captain Angelo Matthews (who is in majestic touch) will make a best batting line up in tournament but recent record is very poor (lost 5-0 to India, lost to New Zealand 2-0 in test series and lost to South Africa). Bowling lineup is weakness barring magical Slinga Malinga. Will they make the slight improvement from their World Cup performance of 2007 and 2011 (they were runner ups in these tournaments) and lift the cup after glorious 1996 World Cup. They will certainly want to win it and give a farewell to the trio.  About Pakistan (1992 Champs); this is the most inconsistent team in last 4 years (Lost to New Zealand 3-2, win against Australia 2-0 in test, lost to Sri Lanka etc). Batting and bowling looks good for Pakistan, batting veterans like Shahid Afridi is playing his last tournament, Misbah-ul-haq, Younis Khan, Mohammad Hafeez etc. and bowling also looks good with the likes of M.Irfan, Junaid Khan etc. But both teams will need efforts to book a final slot in biggest event of Cricket. Both teams will get a 10.

Next two teams are ultimate underdogs, dark horses i.e. England and West Indies. West Indies are undergoing some issues with their Cricket Board (Left Indian tour in midway), (Bravo and Pollard are not included in WC squad). Still they have a balanced team with Gayle at the top to the J.Taylor at the bottom but they are not the convincing team to win this tournament. They might be best team in shortest format of the game (T20) but they will have to work hard to book at least a semi final place spot in WC 2015; Inconsistent performance keeping in mind will give this team a 5. But England can see off the tournament with the world cup win because of their team; they are the ultimate underdogs. Again some issues with board (Cook sacked), still a good team to go into a major tournament. Starting with Captain Morgan, Bell, Moeen Ali (all are in good form) and bowlers like Stuart Broad and Jimmy Anderson does not need any introduction. England never won a tournament but was runner ups in 3 editions. Even if their previous record is not impressive (Lost to Sri Lanka, Lost to India in recent ODI series); they will at least look at semi final spot if not the Final. Rating will be 8.

Next two teams i.e. Bangladesh and Zimbabwe will palpably have desires to win the Cup for their nation. But it is highly uncertain. Still they can be dream breakers for the other teams as Bangladesh did it in 2007 defeating India and South Africa and England in 2011. Constituting good players like best all rounder in the world Sakib, Tamim Iqbal, Abdur Rehman and bowlers like Arafat Sunny and Mashrafe Mortaza can turn around. If they go further in Quarter final spot, it will be dream coming true for them and their supporters and as we all know Cricket is a funny game (anything can happen) (Recently Zimbabwe beat Australia in an ODI). Rating will be 2.5. Zimbabwe will get a 1.

Next are the associate teams; out of the bunch, Ireland can do damage to the other teams as they did in 2007 and 2011 defeating Pakistan and England respectively. O`brien brothers and Porterfield can be a wild card players (Kevin O` Brien have fastest century record in World Cup) Let`s hope they will do well this tournament. I will rate 1 for Ireland. And Afghanistan, UAE, Scotland will get an opportunity to play against best teams in the world, let’s hope they will do well.

FINALLY, World Cup Carnival will be the a big event and let`s hope the best performing team wins the competition. Competition favorites are India, Australia and South Africa

-   

Team	World Cup Record	My ratings(TOTAL of 100)
India	Winners (1983,2011)	18
Australia	Winners (1987,1999,2003,2007)	15
South Africa	Semi Finals (1992,1999,2007)	15
New Zealand	Semi Finals (1975,1979,1992,1999,2007,2011)	14
Sri Lanka	Winners (1996)	10
Pakistan	Winners (1992)	10
England	Runner ups (1979,1987,1992)	8
West Indies	Winners (1975,1979)	5
Bangladesh	Super 8`s (2007)	2.5
Ireland	Super 8`s (2007)	1
Zimbabwe	Super 6`s (1999,2003)	1
Afghanistan	Debut	0.3
Scotland	Group Stage (1999,2007)	0.15
UAE	Group Stage (1996)	0.05
	TOTAL	100

 - GAURAV PUROHIT